UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Models are designed to project what could happen based on current trends but do not forecast what will happen.
  • Behavioral responses drive changes in current trends. This is increasingly important as we enter the fall season.
  • Growth in cases has plateaued overall. However, 2 health districts are currently in a surge trajectory, likely driven by students returning to college and university campuses.
  • Nevertheless, the statewide reproduction rate fell below 1.0. It also fell in all regions, with each falling below 1.0 as well. While this is good news, reproduction rate estimates are preliminary and have tended to be more volatile during direction shifts.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.