UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Updates

Key Takeaways

  • Models are designed to project what could happen based on current trends but do not forecast what will happen. Behavioral responses drive changes in current trends.
  • The reproduction rate continues to remain below 1.0 statewide and in each of the six health planning regions.
  • Weekly incidence in Virginia (9.8/100K) is again below that of the national average (16/100K).
  • No health district is in a surge trajectory for the first time since the UVA modeling team began identifying surge projections.
  • Current projections suggest a downward trend in cases in the coming weeks. However, even a slight changes in behavior could alter the course of the pandemic as seasonal changes occur and Virginians spend more time indoors.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.