Key Takeaways
- The Thanksgiving holiday likely caused a short-term lag in testing and case reporting, which may be masking some infections.
- This weeks projections were heavily influenced by this lag. The UVA team suggests last week’s projections may be more useful, particularly the “less control” scenario.
- Cases are surging nationally.
- 34 states are in surge trajectories
- Including most mid-Atlantic states.
- Even with the Thanksgiving data lag, cases are surging in 17 of Virginia’s 35 health district.
- Due to surges and data lag UVA and RAND suggest using:
- 3-day rather than 7-day averages to identify trends
- Measures based on report or confirmation date over date of onset.