UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases remain relatively flat across the Commonwealth overall, with most health districts split evenly between declining, plateau, and slow growth trajectories
  • Three health districts are now experiencing a surge in cases, an increase from one health district last week
  • The model’s Adaptive Fatigue Control B.1.1.7 scenario shows the potential for a significant peak this summer, larger than any previous peak
  • Hospitalizations are beginning to increase among Virginians age 50-69. Similar patterns appear in other states, with hospitalizations also increasing among those age 20-49 years in states experiencing surges.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.