UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

Case rates across the Commonwealth have plateaued and begun a slow decline. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) continues to hover just below one. Reported cases are down almost 20% since July but have been mostly static for a few weeks.
Most health districts are in declining or plateaued case trajectories. Thirteen are in growth trajectories, with four of these in surge.
Hospitalizations in Virginia have plateaued and remained level since the start of August. Models project this rate will decline in September.
Models suggest minor case surges in the Fall barring the introduction of a new variant. An aggressive new variant, in combination with holiday travel and colder weather, could cause another surge in December. But bivalent vaccine boosters could cut this surge short.
As expected, BA.5 remains the dominant subvariant in Virginia, with BA.4.6 making slow progress. Currently, there are no new variants of concern making progress in the state. BA.2.75 remains rare.
Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-08-24. The next modeling update will be 2022-09-07 for release the following Friday.