UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

Models suggest that new bivalent boosters could have a significant impact on COVID-19, potentially preventing 225,000 cases, 9,000 hospitalizations, and 850 deaths.
Case rates across the Commonwealth have plateaued and may be in a slow decline. The effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is now below 0.9 statewide and in five of Virginia’s six regions. Reported cases are down almost 10% since August 15th, but progress is slow.
Most health districts are in declining or plateaued case trajectories. Twelve are in growth trajectories, with three of these in surge. None of the major metro areas of the Commonwealth are in growth trajectories.
Hospitalizations in Virginia have plateaued and continue to hover around 750-800. These levels have not changed significantly since the start of August. Models project this rate will decline in September but could rise again in the Fall.
Variant proportions remain largely unchanged. BA.5 and BA.4.6 continue to dominate the landscape. There is still no evidence of significant growth by BA.2.75 or any other novel variants in the Commonwealth.