UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates across the Commonwealth have continued their gradual decline. This week cases fell below 20 per 100,000, the lowest since the week of April 25th. The statewide reproduction number (R) has also been below one since late August.
  • Though 11 health districts are still in growth trajectories, not one is in surge this week. Of the Commonwealth’s 35 health districts, 23 are in decline.
  • Hospitalizations in Virginia have declined by about 20% since August. Though the decline is slow, models project this trend will continue in the short term.
  • Only 11 localities are showing high community transmission levels, down from 38 last week. This is the fewest number seen since May. A further 69 localities report medium community transmission levels.
  • Models suggest the possibility of another major surge in December. Virginians could stop this surge in its tracks if they get their boosters along with their annual flu shots. Models estimate that this could prevent 100,000-160,000 cases in the by March 2023. It could also prevent 5,000-7,000 hospitalizations in that time.
  • BA.5 remains the dominant variant, but BA.4.6 is continuing to slowly supplant it. On the horizon, BF.7 and/or BA.2.75.2 are raising concerns, but neither have shown significant growth in Virginia and their potential impact is unknown.
  • Note that the dashboards have been updated (see page 3 of report).

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Projections Dashboard.

UVA COVID-19 District Trajectory Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.