Key Takeaways
- Case rates across the Commonwealth have plateaued at 12.2 per 100k (same as last week). The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) continues to hover just below one at 0.923. Hospitalizations are at a five-month low of 478.
- Most health districts are in declining or plateaued case trajectories. Only five are in growth trajectories with none in surge. Only 12 counties or cities are at medium community levels. None report high levels.
- Models from early October underpredicted this week’s cases in some districts. This suggests that weather is already having some effect on transmission rates. This is expected to continue. Along with new variants, it could cause a significant surge.
- BA.5 remains the dominant subvariant in Virginia. But, for the first time since June it represents fewer than 70% of new cases. BQ.1.1 and BA.2.75.2 are beginning to make inroads in Virginia. XBB is not growing in Virginia but is spreading quickly in Asian nations. It is expected that one or more of these will outcompete BA.5 in the coming months. All three exhibit significant immune escape properties.
- The new bivalent boosters are expected to grant significant protection against hospitalization and death. Given the new variants and impact of weather, it is critical for Virginians to get their boosters as soon as possible.
District Trajectory Dashboard.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.
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