UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates and hospitalizations across the Commonwealth remain low. But early signs suggest that Virginia may be headed into a period of new growth. The effective reproduction number is above one (1.005) and the rate is at or above 0.979 in all regions.
  • More than half of health districts are in growth trajectories, including one in surge. Only nine remain in declining trajectories.
  • At least three serious respiratory diseases are spreading in Virginia. In addition to COVID-19, flu levels are high in all regions of Virginia. RSV levels are also high for this time of year in Virginia. These may have a cumulative impact on hospitals and health systems, straining resources.
  • Vaccinations and boosters for flu and COVID-19, coupled with basic respiratory hygiene, offer the best protection. Those who have not received their annual flu shot or bivalent COVID-19 booster should do so now, especially if gathering with family or friends for the holidays.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

Model Projections Dashboard.

District Trajectory Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.