UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

Case rates and hospitalizations remain low across Virginia. Some signs suggest the possibility of future growth, but that has not yet materialized.
Case rates are down again from last week (10.8 vs 12.4 per 100,000). Hospital and ICU occupancy figures are slightly lower as well. Only one locality is reporting “High” community levels, where masking is recommended in indoor public places. Indoor masking is also recommended for high risk individuals in the 29 locales with “Medium” community levels.
Most health districts are still in declining or plateaued case trajectories. Nine are now in growth trajectories, but none of them are surging. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is up slightly but remains below one (0.979).
The new BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BF.7 and BN.1 variants now account for more than 50% of all new cases. We expect BA.5 to be eliminated in the coming weeks. The new variants have immune escape advantages and can cause reinfections. Modeling suggests that they could lead to another surge when coupled with winter weather. They have already done so in Europe, but the surges they caused were relatively mild.
Influenza is ravaging Virginia and now accounts for 40% of all hospitalizations. Vaccines and good prevention are the best way to protect against both diseases.
Note there will be no interim report next week (Nov. 25) on account of the holiday. A full report and modeling run will be produced the following week. Happy Thanksgiving!