Key Takeaways
- Weekly case rates have declined for two weeks in a row. The seven-day moving average of new cases was 17.55 / 100k on Jan-17. This is down 37% in a fortnight.
- Only sixteen counties and cities are reporting high COVID19 community levels. This is down from 65 locales last week. The CDC recommends residents of these areas wear masks when in indoor public places. Another 64 areas report medium community levels. High-risk individuals should consider masking in these areas.
- Hospital occupancy remains elevated but is declining slowly. The 7-day moving average is now 845. This is down 15% in two weeks. ICU and ventilator patient numbers are also down slightly. Influenza hospitalization rates have also declined significantly, though flu seasons sometimes have a second wave.
- The CDC estimates that the novel XBB.1.5 subvariant is now dominant in Virginia. It represents approximately 60% of all new cases. We expect this growth trend to continue, as XBB.1.5 displaces its peers.
- Models forecast a decline in flu with slight rise in COVID19. Overall, it is expected that patient load at Virginia’s hospitals will be stable for the rest of the month.
- Please consider getting a bivalent COVID19 booster and flu shot if you haven’t already. Also please continue to practice good prevention.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.
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