UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • As of February 2, the CDC listed 16 Virginian localities, with a total 260k residents, as having “High” COVID19 community levels. A further 62 locales, with 3 million residents, were at “Medium” community levels.
  • Cases and hospital admissions continue to decline from early January peaks. 24 of 35 health districts are in declining trajectories and 6 are in slow growth. However, 29 were in declining trajectories last week, with just one in slow growth.
  • Short-term models forecast stable hospital admission levels over the next few weeks.
  • XBB.1.5 has quickly become dominant in HHS Region 3, now representing 73% of sequenced cases. This has not been accompanied with case increases, however.
  • Vaccine administrations continue to decline, with the 7-day average of daily administrations below 5,000 since mid-January.
  • So far, COVID-19 has been much milder than in previous winters. Nevertheless, COVID-19 hospital admissions have far exceeded those from flu, with much higher peaks and high sustained admission rates.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.