UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • After a short plateau, weekly case rates have started another slow decline. As of February 7, the 7-day average of daily cases is 13.65 per 100k. This is down 23% in a fortnight. The current case rate is less than half that of the January 4th peak.
  • Only four counties and cities are reporting high COVID19 community levels this week. This represents about 86,000 Virginians (one percent of the population). The CDC recommends that residents of these locales wear masks when in indoor public places. Another 58 areas (covering 2.67 million Virginians) are reporting medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should also wear a mask in indoor public places.
  • Hospitalization trends have continued a steady decline. The 7-day moving average of new admissions in Virginia is 617. This is down 25% in the last two weeks. ICU occupancy has also declined slowly. The total number of ventilator supported patients has remained mostly static since January.
  • Variant proportions continue to evolve as expected. XBB.1.5 now represents an estimated 86% of all new cases. CH.1.1 is not showing signs of significant growth.
  • Models suggest a plateauing of cases and hospitalizations in the coming weeks. If you have not received your bivalent booster, please consider getting one soon.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2023-01-30. The next modeling update will be 2023-02-13 for release the following Friday.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.