UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Per CDC estimates, BA.2.12.1 remains the dominant subvariant in Virginia. But BA.4 and BA.5 continue to make inroads, and may account for a combined 20% of new cases in Virginia. These subvariants have stronger immune escape properties than previous Omicron subvariants.
  • For the second week in a row, the Commonwealth’s reproductive number (Rₑ) is below one. The same holds for all six regions. Furthermore, twenty of the thirty-five health districts are in declining or plateauing trajectories.
  • The latest models are more encouraging than those produced last week. The current course scenario projects a continued slow decline. The BA.4/BA.5 scenario suggests the possibility of a small surge starting in July, but not exceeding the Delta surge of Fall 2021.

Please note a change in cadence. To better synchronize with holidays and internal needs, we have moved our schedule forward by one week. This has resulted in back-to-back full modeling weeks. As there are only minor changes between last week and this one, there will be no discussion page. But we have updated our dashboards and the results on page two. From here, we will continue with a biweekly schedule. The next full modeling update will be on 2022-06-29, for release the following Friday. Interim week reports will continue to include updates to key metrics and district trajectories.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 is dominant in Virginia, bringing with it a higher effective transmission rate than BA.2.
  • The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants may account for 10% of cases in HHS region 3, which includes Virginia. These subvariants show increased immune escape. Vaccination remains effective at preventing severe disease and death.
  • 91 of Virginia’s 133 localities are at medium or high CDC community levels, including 22 at high. Masking in indoor public places is recommended at high community levels. Masking is also advised for high-risk individuals in areas with medium community levels.
  • Of Virginia’s thirty-five health districts, eighteen are experiencing growth trajectories. This includes ten districts in surge.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide case rates have declined slightly from last week. However, it is unclear how the Memorial Day holiday may have affected case ascertainment rates.
  • Twenty-five of thirty-five health districts are in growth trajectories. This includes twenty one districts in surge trajectories.
  • Twelve counties in Virginia are experiencing high community levels of COVID19. Masking in public indoor places is still recommended for those who live in these counties. Additionally 65 districts are at medium community levels. The CDC recommends persons at high risk continue to mask at these levels.
  • According to the CDC’s Nowcast, the BA.2.12.1 subvariant accounts for almost 70% of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-05-25. The next modeling update will be 2022-06-08 for release the following Friday. 

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide case-rates continue to increase. Most of Virginia is still experiencing “Low” or “Medium” community levels.
  • Transmission rates (Rₑ) are above one for Virginia and in all six regions. 31 of 35 health districts are in growth trajectories, including 24 in surge trajectories.
  • The CDC estimates that the BA.2.12.1 Omicron subvariant is now dominant in the mid-Atlantic region. It accounts for about 56% of sequenced cases in Virginia. The BA.2 subvariant accounts for a further 43% of new cases.
  • Models project continued case growth across the state, with cases peaking in the summer. However the impact in terms of hospitalizations and deaths is likely to be lower compared to past surges.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-05-11. The next modeling update will be 2022-05-25 for release the following Friday. 

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Most health districts (22 of 35) are now in surge, with another 11 in slow growth. Other states are having surges of their own. Most of the Northeastern states are seeing rapid case increases.
  • The basic reproduction number (Rₑ) is above one for all regions of the Commonwealth. This implies that case rates will continue to grow.
  • The CDC estimates that the BA.2.12.1 subvariant represents almost 50% of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia. It will likely become dominant in the next few weeks. The subvariant is more transmissible than the ancestral BA.2.
  • Models forecast a significant surge of cases in the coming weeks. Case rates are not expected to reach levels seen during the January wave. But they will likely exceed those seen in pre-Omicron waves.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.