UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Omicron is causing an unprecedented number of cases and placing severe strain on Virginia’s hospitals, doctors, and nurses.
  • Confirmed case growth is slowing or declining in some states and in some regions of Virginia. While promising, difficulties with case ascertainment make these trends difficult to confirm.
  • While the Omicron surge is likely to peak statewide soon, case levels will remain high for several weeks after the peak, and rural areas may be affected later.
  • Vaccination is the best protection against severe disease, and death. Get vaccinated and boosted when eligible.
  • The Governor’s Office has announced its COVID-19 Action Plan.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates continue to grow across the Commonwealth and are now at historic highs. Early signs suggest this growth may be slowing, but all 35 health districts are still in surge.
  • Models project a continued steep rise in cases with a peak around January 23rd. Case rates may fall just as sharply after the peak.
  • Omicron is less severe than Delta, but this surge will cause a large increase of hospitalizations, which could reach record levels in the coming weeks.
  • Vaccines and boosters remain very effective at protecting against hospitalization and death from the Omicron variant.
  • The CDC estimates that the Omicron variant now accounts for about 98% of new cases in the mid-Atlantic region.
  • This is an interim week report. Models were last run on January 5th, and will be run again on January 19th. The next modeling update will be released January 21st.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • The Omicron variant has displaced Delta and is now responsible for an estimated 94% of new cases in Virginia.
  • Case rates have accelerated to unprecedented levels throughout the Commonwealth, and all 35 health districts are now in surge.
  • Models project a continued sharp rise in cases for several weeks, possibly followed by an equally sharp decline.
  • There is some evidence that Omicron may be less severe than Delta, but the explosion of new cases is still expected to put an enormous burden on communities and the healthcare system.
  • The sheer number of new cases may overwhelm testing capacities and drive down the case detection rate. As such, case rates may not be as reliable a marker of epidemic trends as they once were.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates continue to grow across the Commonwealth and remain at a high level. Currently, 21 of 35 health districts are in surge trajectories, while nine are in slow growth.
  • The statewide reproduction rate (R) is still above one.
  • The Omicron scenario projects a sudden surge, reaching 15,000 daily cases in late January. This is more than twice the maximum rate seen during the Winter 2021 surge.
  • Holiday travel and activities may contribute to an even larger surge.
  • The CDC estimates that Omicron now accounts for over 75% of new cases in the mid-Atlantic region.

Note: There will be no modeling update in the week between Christmas and New Years. The models will next be updated on 2022-01-05 and published on the following Friday, 2022-01-07.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates grew after the Thanksgiving holiday and remain at a high level, with 21 of 35 health districts in surge.
  • Though the statewide Rₑ is still above one, and cases continue to grow, the rate of this growth has slowed slightly since last week.
  • The Adaptive scenario is converging with the Fall/Winter scenario, projecting a January peak higher than during the Delta wave.
  • Delta is still the predominant variant, but Omicron is expected to begin impacting Virginia over the holidays.
  • The Omicron’s scenario suggests that it will fuel rapid case growth and cause a severe surge in February of 2022 that is likely to exceed that of Winter 2021.

Note: Models will be run next on 2021-12-22, and released on the following Friday. There will be no update in the week between Christmas and New Years.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.