UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates in Virginia have leveled off. No health districts are in Surge, but several are now showing Slow Growth. Overall, Virginia’s trajectory has moved from Declining to Plateau.
  • Self-reported mask usage has stalled across Virginia, with 61.5% of respondents masking when in crowded public places (down from 65.5% in the first week of November).
  • Booster vaccine administrations have tapered slightly, but the authorization of Pfizer vaccine for children aged 5-11 years has caused an significant increase in first time dose administrations.
  • Models continue to forecast a slow decline, but also suggest that seasonal factors and holiday travel could shift our trajectory towards another winter surge rivaling that of Winter 2020.

Note: There will be no weekly update next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases continue to decline or plateau across the Commonwealth. Nevertheless, case rates remain high in some regions, particularly Southwest Virginia.
  • So far, Virginia has not seen a repeat of increased transmission rates seen last fall. This reduces the expected impact of a potential holiday surge. Nevertheless, the model shows a large surge is possible under current vaccination rates.
  • First dose vaccinations have ticked up recently, and booster shot uptake has been robust.
  • Metaculus forecasters place a 30% chance on the possibility of cases exceeding the Delta surge during the 1st quarter of 2022.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • The cadence of COVID-19 projections has been reduced to bi-weekly. This is an abbreviated interim report.
  • Case rates remain high, but continue to decline statewide. The reproductive rate is below 1.0 in all of Virginia’s regions.
  • New vaccinations are accruing slowly but steadily. Vaccination rates remain below community immunity levels in all regions.
  • Similar to last year, holiday travel and winter weather could prompt a new surge in cases. Vaccination, including boosters when eligible, is your best protection during the holiday season.
  • Stay safe during the holidays by following CDC guidance.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates remain high, but are continuing to decline steadily in nearly all districts.
  • Model projections expect continued decline across the board.
  • Vaccine “boosters” may reduce cases even further.
  • Future case growth remains possible if transmission rates mirror those of Winter 2020. At the moment the Commonwealth is not following this trajectory.
  • The impact of the flu season remains an unknown. It is possible that a severe flu season, in conjunction with the ongoing COVID pandemic, may push hospitals to near capacity in January of 2022.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • While case levels remain very high, they are declining in most areas of the state. 31 health districts are in declining trajectories, and only one is in a slow growth trajectory. None are in surge trajectories.
  • High case levels, combined with a substantial unvaccinated population, could lead to a significant holiday surge.
  • Combined with a possible holiday COVID-19 surge, a severe flu could result in hospitalizations that exceed last January’s peak.
  • Vaccines are the best prevention for flu and COVID-19. Booster shot administrations currently exceed first and second dose COVID-19 vaccine administrations.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.