- Virginians appear to be adjusting demand for testing around the holidays causing abrupt shifts in case data
- Cases surged prior to Thanksgiving, paused over the holiday, surged again after, and have paused again (see page 3 of the Full Weekly Report)
- Abrupt shifts in data lead to abrupt shifts in model projections, making interpretation of case and model data challenging
- This will likely continue into early January
- This week’s projections are significantly lower than last week’s, however, this may be short term reflection of holiday data shifts
- Test positivity is consistently above 10%, indicating that some cases are likely being missed
- Activities over the holidays will largely dictate the course of the pandemic early in 2021.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.