UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • 28 Virginia counties are at high community levels, and 75 are at medium, both increasing from last week. Residents of these counties should follow recommended prevention measures as appropriate.
  • BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants continue to make inroads, and may account for a third of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia. These subvariants have stronger immune escape properties than previous Omicron subvariants but so far show no evidence of increased transmission rates or severity.
  • Fewer (23) of Virginia’s 35 health districts are in decline than last week, and 7 are in slow growth trajectories. Models show continued declines in most regions. Cases are projected to increase in far Southwest Virginia, and may rise in some scenarios in other regions.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • 17 Virginia counties are at high community levels, and 63 are at medium. Residents of these counties should follow recommended prevention measures as appropriate.
  • BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants continue to make inroads, and may account for a third of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia. These subvariants have stronger immune escape properties than previous Omicron subvariants but so far show no evidence of increased transmission rates or severity.
  • 28 of Virginia’s 35 health districts are in declining trajectories, and an additional 3 are in plateau. Model projections show continued declines, thought BA.4 and BA.5 may cause a bump up in cases in late summer.

Please note a change in cadence. To better synchronize with holidays and internal needs, we have moved our schedule forward by one week.  The next full modeling update will be on 2022-06-29, for release the following Friday. Interim week reports will continue to include updates to key metrics and district trajectories.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

There is no surveillance update this week. Please visit the COVID-19 Data in Virginia site for the latest data.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Per CDC estimates, BA.2.12.1 remains the dominant subvariant in Virginia. But BA.4 and BA.5 continue to make inroads, and may account for a combined 20% of new cases in Virginia. These subvariants have stronger immune escape properties than previous Omicron subvariants.
  • For the second week in a row, the Commonwealth’s reproductive number (Rₑ) is below one. The same holds for all six regions. Furthermore, twenty of the thirty-five health districts are in declining or plateauing trajectories.
  • The latest models are more encouraging than those produced last week. The current course scenario projects a continued slow decline. The BA.4/BA.5 scenario suggests the possibility of a small surge starting in July, but not exceeding the Delta surge of Fall 2021.

Please note a change in cadence. To better synchronize with holidays and internal needs, we have moved our schedule forward by one week. This has resulted in back-to-back full modeling weeks. As there are only minor changes between last week and this one, there will be no discussion page. But we have updated our dashboards and the results on page two. From here, we will continue with a biweekly schedule. The next full modeling update will be on 2022-06-29, for release the following Friday. Interim week reports will continue to include updates to key metrics and district trajectories.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 is dominant in Virginia, bringing with it a higher effective transmission rate than BA.2.
  • The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants may account for 10% of cases in HHS region 3, which includes Virginia. These subvariants show increased immune escape. Vaccination remains effective at preventing severe disease and death.
  • 91 of Virginia’s 133 localities are at medium or high CDC community levels, including 22 at high. Masking in indoor public places is recommended at high community levels. Masking is also advised for high-risk individuals in areas with medium community levels.
  • Of Virginia’s thirty-five health districts, eighteen are experiencing growth trajectories. This includes ten districts in surge.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide case rates have declined slightly from last week. However, it is unclear how the Memorial Day holiday may have affected case ascertainment rates.
  • Twenty-five of thirty-five health districts are in growth trajectories. This includes twenty one districts in surge trajectories.
  • Twelve counties in Virginia are experiencing high community levels of COVID19. Masking in public indoor places is still recommended for those who live in these counties. Additionally 65 districts are at medium community levels. The CDC recommends persons at high risk continue to mask at these levels.
  • According to the CDC’s Nowcast, the BA.2.12.1 subvariant accounts for almost 70% of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-05-25. The next modeling update will be 2022-06-08 for release the following Friday. 

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.