Category: Modeling

The VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update is produced by the VDH Office of Emergency Preparedness. This update covers ongoing or potential public health issues, including COVID-19. This product is intended to enhance situational awareness among the public health, healthcare, and emergency management communities. Some items covered may pose little or no threat to the public at large. For instance, an ebola outbreak occurring outside of the United States would pose virtually no risk to Virginians, but emergency preparedness resources may be activated to coordinate efforts to monitor, quarantine, and potentially treat travelers arriving from affected countries. The update includes links to publicly available data and news sources. These items are included for situational awareness only and do not represent an endorsement of the source or information therein.

Key Takeaways

• For the first time since the metric was created, all Virginia localities are at low COVID-19 Community Levels according to the CDC. Virginia also continues to be at “Low” influenza intensity levels, with 2 of 6 regions at “minimal” levels.
• COVID-19 and influenza hospital admissions continue to decrease. Nevertheless, there were 300 COVID-19 admissions in Virginia last week.
• WHO officials expect to end the public health emergency of international concern for COVID-19 sometime this year.
• The CDC and VDH are warning of a concerning rise in C. Auris and CPOs cases, including outbreaks in health facilities. C. Auris has been detected in every region of Virginia.
• The IPCC’s latest report outlined the current impacts of climate change and warned of the growing risks associated with continued warming.

VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

NOTE: This week’s update marks the transition from the “UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update” to the “VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update” produced by the VDH Office of Emergency Preparedness (See the March 3 Weekly Report). COVID-19 remains a central feature of this update but other ongoing or potential public health issues are also covered. This product is intended to enhance situational awareness among the public health, healthcare, and emergency management communities. Some items covered may pose little or no threat to the public at large. For instance, an ebola outbreak occurring outside of the United States would pose virtually no risk to Virginians, but emergency preparedness resources may be activated to coordinate efforts to monitor, quarantine, and potentially treat travelers arriving from affected countries. The update includes links to publicly available data and news sources. These items are included for situational awareness only and do not represent an endorsement of the source or information therein.

Key Takeaways

• More than 97% of Virginians reside in localities at low COVID-19 community levels. Virginia is now at “Low” influenza intensity levels. Nationally influenza activity has plateaued just below the national baseline at 2.4% while Virginia is at 3%.
• COVID-19 and influenza hospital admissions continue to decrease. Nevertheless, there were 355 COVID-19 admissions in Virginia last week.
• Norovirus test positivity remains high despite a dip in the Southern Region last week. The national 3-week test positivity rate is at 16.5% compared to the Southern region’s 15.6%.
• Thirteen cases of invasive meningococcal disease type Y have been reported since June 2022 in the Virginia Eastern Region.
• Norfolk has the highest rate of sea level rise on the East Coast according to VIMS’ Sea Level Report Card.

VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

Key Takeaways

• Weekly case rates continue to decline. As of March 7, the seven-day average of daily reported cases is 7.5 per 100k. The daily average has not been above 10 per 100k since November of 2022.
• For the second week in a row, not a single county or city is reporting high CDC COVID-1919 community levels. Over 97% of Virginians reside in localities at low community levels. Ten localities with 218,000 residents are reporting medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should wear a mask in indoor public places
• Hospital admissions are also declining, and have dropped 13% week-over-week. However, Virginia is still experiencing over 400 hospital admissions per week. As of March 9, there were 368 people in Virginia hospitals with COVID-19 as the primary diagnosis, including 53 in the ICU and 22 on ventilators. Although COVID-19 continues to decline, COVID-19 still has the potential to cause severe disease, particularly among seniors and those with comorbidities.
• XBB.1.5 remains the dominant variant in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia. While there is a large mix of variants circulating globally, none have shown concerning characteristics.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

Key Takeaways

• For the third week, not a single county or city is experiencing high COVID19 community levels. More than 95% of Virginians reside in localities at low community levels.
• Seventeen localities, with 407,000 residents, are at medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should wear a mask when in indoor public places.
• XBB.1.5 remains the dominant variant. It accounts for an estimated 94% of sequenced cases in HHS Region 3 according to CDC’s Nowcast. There are no exceptional variants on the horizon.
• Models project continued declines in COVID-19 confirmed cases and hospitalizations. Influenza rates are also expected to remain low.
• The COVID-19 modeling and analytics products will transition to an all-threats framework over the coming weeks. Work on COVID-19 will continue. But efforts will expand to include other emerging public health threats.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

Key Takeaways

• Weekly case rates are continuing along a steady decline. As of February 21, the seven-day average of daily cases is 9.73 per 100k. This is down 44% in a month. The daily average has not been below 10 per 100k since November of 2022.
• For the second week in a row, not a single county or city is reporting high COVID19 community levels. Thirty-three locales (covering 1.55 million Virginians) are reporting medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should wear a mask in indoor public places.
• Hospitalizations have been dwindling since early January. The seven-day moving average of new admissions is 500. This is down almost 40% in a month. Last week saw a rise in ICU occupancy and the number of patients needing ventilator support. But both of these figures have resumed their downward trajectory this week. Both have reached lows not seen since November of 2022.
• The evolution of variant proportions is progressing as expected. XBB.1.5 remains dominant and accounts for almost 94% of new cases in Virginia. No other variants are showing significant growth. In fact, CH.1.1 seems to be losing ground.
• Models forecast a small uptick in hospitalizations in the coming weeks. This should not exceed January’s rates. A surge is not expected in the near future.
• Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2023-02-13. The next modeling update will be 2023-02-27 for release the following Friday.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.