UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates and hospitalizations remain low across Virginia. Some signs suggest the possibility of future growth, but that has not yet materialized.
  • Case rates are down again from last week (10.8 vs 12.4 per 100,000). Hospital and ICU occupancy figures are slightly lower as well. Only one locality is reporting “High” community levels, where masking is recommended in indoor public places. Indoor masking is also recommended for high risk individuals in the 29 locales with “Medium” community levels.
  • Most health districts are still in declining or plateaued case trajectories. Nine are now in growth trajectories, but none of them are surging. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is up slightly but remains below one (0.979).
  • The new BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BF.7 and BN.1 variants now account for more than 50% of all new cases. We expect BA.5 to be eliminated in the coming weeks. The new variants have immune escape advantages and can cause reinfections. Modeling suggests that they could lead to another surge when coupled with winter weather. They have already done so in Europe, but the surges they caused were relatively mild.
  • Influenza is ravaging Virginia and now accounts for 40% of all hospitalizations. Vaccines and good prevention are the best way to protect against both diseases.
  • Note there will be no interim report next week (Nov. 25) on account of the holiday. A full report and modeling run will be produced the following week. Happy Thanksgiving!

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

Model Projections Dashboard.

District Trajectory Dashboard.

Case Progression Dashboard. (new)

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • There are subtle signs that Virginia may experience growth in the coming weeks. But cases and hospitalizations are still plateaued at a low level.
  • Case rates are down slightly from last week (12.4 vs 13.1 per 100,000). Hospital and ICU occupancy figures are nearly identical to last week’s rates. Only three localities are report “High” community levels. In these locales, masking is recommended in indoor public places.
  • The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is down slightly and remains below one (0.905). All regions are also below one. Yet, some districts are showing growth. Two are in surge, another 15 in slow growth.
  • Variant proportions are evolving as expected. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are growing quickly. Together they represent almost 45% of new cases in Virginia. BF.7 is also growing. We see no evidence of significant BA.2.75.2 or XBB growth.
  • Models suggest that another winter surge is possible. This could be driven by weather, travel, and the new variants. Models also suggest that bivalent boosters could prevent tens of thousands of cases. If you haven’t already gotten your booster, please consider getting one when possible.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-11-02. The next modeling update will be 2022-11-16 for release the following Friday.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

Model Projections Dashboard.

District Trajectory Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

No VDH Surveillance Data Update this week. The surveillance team spent the week working to update the design and scope of the report. Future versions may include more detailed data on other respiratory diseases. A full length presentation is expected next week and will be included as usual.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates and hospitalizations across the Commonwealth remain low. But early signs suggest that Virginia may be headed into a period of new growth. The effective reproduction number is above one (1.005) and the rate is at or above 0.979 in all regions.
  • More than half of health districts are in growth trajectories, including one in surge. Only nine remain in declining trajectories.
  • At least three serious respiratory diseases are spreading in Virginia. In addition to COVID-19, flu levels are high in all regions of Virginia. RSV levels are also high for this time of year in Virginia. These may have a cumulative impact on hospitals and health systems, straining resources.
  • Vaccinations and boosters for flu and COVID-19, coupled with basic respiratory hygiene, offer the best protection. Those who have not received their annual flu shot or bivalent COVID-19 booster should do so now, especially if gathering with family or friends for the holidays.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

Model Projections Dashboard.

District Trajectory Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates and hospitalizations across the Commonwealth remain low. But early signs suggest that Virginia may be headed into a period of new growth.
  • Confirmed cases are down slightly from last week. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) continues to hover just below one at 0.890. This is down 0.033 from last week. No region in the Commonwealth has an Rₑ > 1.0, but several are close. This suggests that cases have plateaued, but not yet begun to grow.
  • Most health districts are still in declining or plateaued case trajectories. Ten are now in growth trajectories with two in surge. A total of 36 counties and cities are now at “Medium” community levels. Two are now reporting “High” community levels. In these locales, masking is recommended in indoor public places.
  • BA.5 is no longer responsible for the majority of cases in Virginia. The newly introduced variants BF.7, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 now account for an estimated 35% of new cases. These variants can escape prior immunity. They also have significant growth advantages over BA.5. They will likely out-compete it within a few weeks. BA.2.75.2 remains rare, and XBB cases have not been detected in significant numbers.
  • Modeling continues to suggest the possibility of another major winter surge. Bivalent boosters remain our best bet to limit the impact of this surge. They are now available for all five and older. Please consider getting yours as soon as possible.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-10-19. The next modeling update will be 2022-11-02 for release the following Friday.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

Model Projections Dashboard.

District Trajectory Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates across the Commonwealth have plateaued at 12.2 per 100k (same as last week). The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) continues to hover just below one at 0.923. Hospitalizations are at a five-month low of 478.
  • Most health districts are in declining or plateaued case trajectories. Only five are in growth trajectories with none in surge. Only 12 counties or cities are at medium community levels. None report high levels.
  • Models from early October underpredicted this week’s cases in some districts. This suggests that weather is already having some effect on transmission rates. This is expected to continue. Along with new variants, it could cause a significant surge.
  • BA.5 remains the dominant subvariant in Virginia. But, for the first time since June it represents fewer than 70% of new cases. BQ.1.1 and BA.2.75.2 are beginning to make inroads in Virginia. XBB is not growing in Virginia but is spreading quickly in Asian nations. It is expected that one or more of these will outcompete BA.5 in the coming months. All three exhibit significant immune escape properties.
  • The new bivalent boosters are expected to grant significant protection against hospitalization and death. Given the new variants and impact of weather, it is critical for Virginians to get their boosters as soon as possible.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

Model Projections Dashboard.

District Trajectory Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.