UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates have plateaued but are still high in most areas of the Commonwealth. On average, rates are over five times higher than they were in Summer of 2021. Statewide hospitalizations may have peaked last week and are showing signs of decline.
  • Eighteen health districts are in growth trajectories, with three in surge. But, the effective reproduction number (Rₑ) remains below one for all regions. This suggests that case rates have plateaued and may decline in the coming weeks.
  • The CDC estimates that the BA.5 Omicron subvariant now accounts for over 85% of new cases in Virginia. BA.4.6 and BA.2.75 are not yet making significant inroads in the Commonwealth.
  • Models suggest Virginia will experience a continued gradual decline in case rates. Seasonal forcing or a new variant could potentially cause a surge by November. Conversely, Omicron-specific boosters could tamp down such surges and prevent thousands of hospitalizations.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Across the nation, case rates are beginning a slow but steady decline. Hospitalization trends are always a few weeks behind. Most states are still showing slow growth or plateaued hospitalization trajectories.
  • We continue to see a mixture of slow growth and declining case rate trajectories in Virginia. Only two health districts are currently in surge. Statewide, case rates remain level. The effective reproduction number continues to hover around one. Urgent care and emergency room visits for COVID19-like illness have also flattened out.
  • Though we are not seeing significant statewide growth, Virginia has plateaued at an elevated level. Currently 122 of our 133 localities are experiencing Medium or High community levels. Hospitalizations have grown slightly. Models suggest they will level off in the coming weeks.
  • The BA.5 subvariant continues to out-compete its cousins in Virginia. The newer BA.4.6 and BA.2.75 subvariants are being tracked carefully. So far, there is no indication of substantial growth by either in Virginia.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-07-27. The next modeling update will be 2022-08-10 for release the following Friday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Although plateauing, case rates remain high. Current rates are 5.5 times higher than the mean rates of Summer 2021. Infections are likely much higher due to lower case ascertainment rates.
  • Hospitalizations have grown slowly but consistently for the past few weeks, even as cases have remained relatively stable.
  • According to the CDC’s Nowcast, the BA.5 subvariant now accounts for 4 out of every 5 new cases in the region.
  • A total of 55 localities are now at High community levels. At these levels, the CDC recommends masking in public indoor places for all residents. A further 60 are at Medium community levels. High risk individuals in these communities should also consider masking.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates remain high and continue to grow. Current rates are 5.1 times higher than the mean rates of Summer 2021. Twenty-eight districts are in growth trajectories. This includes eight in surge.
  • Hospitalizations have grown slowly but consistently for the past three weeks. Wastewater surveillance and test positivity rates also suggest continued growth in Virginia.
  • The BA.5 subvariant now represents an estimated 73% of new cases in our region. We expect it to continue to drive growth across Virginia.
  • A total of 61 localities are now at High community levels. At these levels, the CDC recommends masking in public indoor places for all residents. A further 55 are at Medium community levels. High risk individuals in these communities should also consider masking.
  • Please continue to practice good prevention. Though the situation has improved since winter, we are not in a “summer lull”.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-07-13. The next modeling update will be 2022-07-27 for release the following Friday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates have remained relatively stable over the last few weeks. But test positivity, wastewater surveillance, and hospitalization trends all suggest growth across Virginia. This matches the trends seen in neighboring states. Hospitalizations continue to climb in Maryland, Washington DC, and West Virginia.
  • Seventeen districts are in growth trajectories, with three of these districts surging. Fifty localities are now at “High” community levels. A further sixty are at “Medium” community levels. Residents in these counties should take appropriate preventive measures.
  • The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants have continued to make in-roads and are now dominant in Virginia.
  • Models project a small rise in cases in the coming weeks. They also show a potential for future growth in the Fall. This will depend on seasonality and the introduction of potential future variants.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.