UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • 24 health districts show a declining case trajectory this week, while six health districts are now in slow growth.
  • Wide regional variation in case projections persists, driven in large part by differences in vaccine acceptance rates. High vaccine acceptance in the Northern Region leads to optimistic projections in those health districts.
  • National projections mirror those seen in Virginia, with faster declines in case rates occurring in scenarios with high vaccination rates.

 

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case, hospitalization and death rates in Virginia have not changed much over the last several weeks.
  • Virginia is making progress toward herd immunity, however, many more Virginians need to get vaccinated to get vaccination coverage levels to 75-80%.
  • Emerging pockets of lower vaccination coverage in the Commonwealth provide opportunities for current and future disease transmission, and for new variants to emerge.

 

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Overall, cases continue to plateau in Virginia. With the exception of Mount Rogers, Virginia’s local health districts are equally divided into declining, plateauing, and slow growth trajectories.
  • Mount Rogers Health District is experiencing a surge in cases. Hotspots are centered around Ivanhoe, including Max Meadows, Wytheville, Sugar Grove, and Austinville.
  • The B.1.1.7 variant is the most dominant Variant of Concern in Virginia. This VoC spreads more rapidly, and increases hospitalizations and deaths by 60%, including among younger age cohorts.
  • While variants are a concern, vaccine hesitancy is the largest long-term risk to containing the impact of the pandemic.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case counts in Virginia have plateaued and are now slowly increasing. More counties (13) are having slow growth.
  • Vaccination progress continues with 66,882 average daily doses administered this past week.
  • The B.1.1.7 variant is becoming the predominant strain in Virginia as predicted and the model projects another peak in late spring or early summer. The timing and size of the peak depend on how well Virginians maintain prevention measures.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates in Virginia remain plateaued above the peaks experienced last summer. Declining case rates observed earlier this year appear to have slowed.
  • The effective reproductive number (Re) has risen above 1.0 statewide for the first time since January.
  • Vaccine coverage continues to increase, but disparities in vaccine uptake are notable.
  • Relaxing personal precautions and growing variants emerge as the two greatest threats to increased case rates.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.