Category: Model

Key Takeaways

• Respiratory illness rates continue to decrease but remain elevated. This marks the third consecutive week of decreasing ED diagnoses rates for COVID-19, flu, and RSV. Overall rates are still well above annual averages.
• Hospitalizations for COVID-19 and flu decrease. COVID-19 admissions levels are now classified as “low”. Hospital bed occupancy remains “moderate” per CDC standards. CDC models suggest continued decrease in hospitalizations for both viruses.
• Norovirus detections in Virginia decreased 16% since the end of 2023.
• Environmental and technological threats highlight global risks over the next decade. This according to the WEF’s 2024 Global Risk Report.
• Since December 1, 2023, the CDC has been notified of 23 confirmed U.S. cases of measles. This includes seven direct importations of measles by international travelers and two outbreaks of more than five cases each.

VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

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The VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update is produced by the VDH Office of Emergency Preparedness. This update covers ongoing or potential public health and emergency preparedness issues, including COVID-19. This product is intended to enhance situational awareness among the public health, healthcare, and emergency management communities. Some items covered may pose little or no threat to the public at large. These items are included for situational awareness only and do not represent an endorsement of the source or information therein.

Key Takeaways

• Surveillance indicators suggest decreasing respiratory illness activity. ED diagnoses for COVID-19, flu, and RSV have declined two weeks in a row. Wastewater data also suggests decreasing activity levels. Despite the recent declines, overall rates of respiratory illness remain high statewide.
• Hospitalizations for COVID-19 and flu are decreasing. Yet, statewide COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy remains “moderate”. Models suggest flu admissions will decrease, while COVID-19 admissions stabilize.
• Cold air and wintry weather will move into the Commonwealth Friday and remain throughout the weekend. Wind chills overnight Saturday will be below zero in parts of Northwest and Southwest Virginia, and in the single digits in the rest of the state.
• Potential measles exposures in Northern Virginia airports highlights a number of cases nationally. The outbreak in Philadelphia has reached nine total cases.

VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

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The VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update is produced by the VDH Office of Emergency Preparedness. This update covers ongoing or potential public health and emergency preparedness issues, including COVID-19. This product is intended to enhance situational awareness among the public health, healthcare, and emergency management communities. Some items covered may pose little or no threat to the public at large. These items are included for situational awareness only and do not represent an endorsement of the source or information therein.

Key Takeaways

• Growth of flu and COVID-19 in Virginia may have stabilized. Multiple indicators for both viruses have decreased this week. Yet, overall rates of COVID-19 and flu remain high statewide. RSV diagnoses at emergency departments are also decreasing.
• COVID-19 and flu hospital admissions decreased slightly. Models suggest January may bring a slight increase in COVID-19 hospital admissions. Flu hospital admissions are expected to decrease slowly. COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy remains “moderate”.
• JN.1 is expected to become the dominant COVID-19 variant in Virginia this week. It continues to out-compete HV.1 and peers.
• Norovirus rates may have stabilized in the region.
• Another round of storms is expected tonight, with the potential for strong winds and heavy rains, but risk of floods has passed in most of the state.

VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

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The VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update is produced by the VDH Office of Emergency Preparedness. This update covers ongoing or potential public health and emergency preparedness issues, including COVID-19. This product is intended to enhance situational awareness among the public health, healthcare, and emergency management communities. Some items covered may pose little or no threat to the public at large. These items are included for situational awareness only and do not represent an endorsement of the source or information therein.

Key Takeaways

• Snow and ice are expected across much of the state this weekend with over 3″ expected in parts of Northwest Virginia, though most impacted areas will see less than 1″ of accumulation.
• Another storm system is expected Tuesday, with the potential for heavy rains. Precipitation from both systems may cause river flooding later in the week.
• COVID-19 and flu activity continues to increase. Hospital admissions have also increased for both viruses.
• Norovirus rates continue to increase in Census Region 1 (including Virginia). Outbreaks are also reported across in Utah and the UK.
• Virginia had 6,761 persons experiencing homelessness in January 2023, according to a point-in-time survey. Nationally, homelessness increased by 12% year-over-year.

VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

---

The VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update is produced by the VDH Office of Emergency Preparedness. This update covers ongoing or potential public health and emergency preparedness issues, including COVID-19. This product is intended to enhance situational awareness among the public health, healthcare, and emergency management communities. Some items covered may pose little or no threat to the public at large. These items are included for situational awareness only and do not represent an endorsement of the source or information therein.

Key Takeaways

• COVID-19 continues to increase in Virginia. ED diagnosis rates and hospital admissions are at the highest levels seen since February of 2023. Yet, they are still significantly lower than last year’s peak.
• CDC forecasts suggest that COVID-19 hospitalizations will level off in the coming weeks. Statewide admissions levels are still classified as “low”. More than half of Virginia localities, covering 40% of the population, now report “medium” or “high” admissions rates.
• Flu activity is increasing sharply. Statewide influenza activity is now “very high”. Flu hospital admissions have almost tripled in the last month. Models suggest that flu hospital admissions will continue to grow until mid-January.
• Norovirus detections continue to increase across the region.
• RSV activity in Virginia has dropped for three weeks in a row.

VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

---

The VDH OEP Weekly Situation Update is produced by the VDH Office of Emergency Preparedness. This update covers ongoing or potential public health and emergency preparedness issues, including COVID-19. This product is intended to enhance situational awareness among the public health, healthcare, and emergency management communities. Some items covered may pose little or no threat to the public at large. These items are included for situational awareness only and do not represent an endorsement of the source or information therein.