UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates across the Commonwealth have continued their gradual decline. This week cases fell below 20 per 100,000, the lowest since the week of April 25th. The statewide reproduction number (R) has also been below one since late August.
  • Though 11 health districts are still in growth trajectories, not one is in surge this week. Of the Commonwealth’s 35 health districts, 23 are in decline.
  • Hospitalizations in Virginia have declined by about 20% since August. Though the decline is slow, models project this trend will continue in the short term.
  • Only 11 localities are showing high community transmission levels, down from 38 last week. This is the fewest number seen since May. A further 69 localities report medium community transmission levels.
  • Models suggest the possibility of another major surge in December. Virginians could stop this surge in its tracks if they get their boosters along with their annual flu shots. Models estimate that this could prevent 100,000-160,000 cases in the by March 2023. It could also prevent 5,000-7,000 hospitalizations in that time.
  • BA.5 remains the dominant variant, but BA.4.6 is continuing to slowly supplant it. On the horizon, BF.7 and/or BA.2.75.2 are raising concerns, but neither have shown significant growth in Virginia and their potential impact is unknown.
  • Note that the dashboards have been updated (see page 3 of report).

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Projections Dashboard.

UVA COVID-19 District Trajectory Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Reported case rates across the Commonwealth continue along a slow decline. They are down by about 30% since this time last month. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is also now well below one at 0.833.
  • Despite decreasing case rates at the state level, fifteen of Virginia’s 35 districts are in growth trajectories with three in surge. All three were also in surge last week.
  • Thirty-eight localities are still at “High” community levels. Masking in indoor public places is recommended for everyone in these regions. A further 52 localities report “Medium” community levels where masking is suggested for high-risk individuals.
  • Hospitalizations in Virginia have begun a slow decline. They are now down about 10% compared to this time last month. Models continue to project a slow decline in hospitalizations in the coming weeks.
  • BA.5 continues as the dominant subvariant in Virginia. But BA.4.6 is slowly gaining ground. At the moment there is no significant growth of BA.2.75 or BF.7 in Virginia, but the CDC and VDH are carefully tracking both.
  • Models continue to suggest the possibility of a major surge should a new variant coincide with the Holiday Season. They also suggest that bivalent boosters could save hundreds of lives and prevent thousands of hospitalizations in Virginia.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-09-07. The next modeling update will be 2022-09-21 for release the following Friday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Models suggest that new bivalent boosters could have a significant impact on COVID-19, potentially preventing 225,000 cases, 9,000 hospitalizations, and 850 deaths.
  • Case rates across the Commonwealth have plateaued and may be in a slow decline. The effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is now below 0.9 statewide and in five of Virginia’s six regions. Reported cases are down almost 10% since August 15th, but progress is slow.
  • Most health districts are in declining or plateaued case trajectories. Twelve are in growth trajectories, with three of these in surge. None of the major metro areas of the Commonwealth are in growth trajectories.
  • Hospitalizations in Virginia have plateaued and continue to hover around 750-800. These levels have not changed significantly since the start of August. Models project this rate will decline in September but could rise again in the Fall.
  • Variant proportions remain largely unchanged. BA.5 and BA.4.6 continue to dominate the landscape. There is still no evidence of significant growth by BA.2.75 or any other novel variants in the Commonwealth.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates across the Commonwealth have plateaued and begun a slow decline. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) continues to hover just below one. Reported cases are down almost 20% since July but have been mostly static for a few weeks.
  • Most health districts are in declining or plateaued case trajectories. Thirteen are in growth trajectories, with four of these in surge.
  • Hospitalizations in Virginia have plateaued and remained level since the start of August. Models project this rate will decline in September.
  • Models suggest minor case surges in the Fall barring the introduction of a new variant. An aggressive new variant, in combination with holiday travel and colder weather, could cause another surge in December. But bivalent vaccine boosters could cut this surge short.
  • As expected, BA.5 remains the dominant subvariant in Virginia, with BA.4.6 making slow progress. Currently, there are no new variants of concern making progress in the state. BA.2.75 remains rare.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-08-24. The next modeling update will be 2022-09-07 for release the following Friday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • New, Omicron-specific, bivalent boosters may be available as early as the first weeks of September. If uptake is strong, these could have a substantial impact on hospitalization rates throughout the fall and winter seasons.
  • While case levels remain high, cases have begun to decline statewide. 28 of Virginia’s 35 health districts are in declining trajectories, while only 4 are in growth trajectories. Alternative indicators (wastewater, urgent care visits) also suggest cases have plateaued or are declining.
  • The BA.5 subvariant remains dominant, while BA.4 subvariants continue to represent about 10% of cases in HHS Region 3. At the moment, there do not appear to be any significant variants on the horizon.
  • Note that the weekly surveillance reports have widened to cover all respiratory diseases as well as monkeypox. COVID19 data is still included in these surveillance reports (below).

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.