UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • While still high, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Virginia continue to decline from the recent peak.
  • The most significant obstacle to continued improvement in case counts remains the further emergence of variants.
  • One year into the pandemic, Virginia is performing well compared to other states on case, death and vaccination rates, but COVID-19 racial/ethnic disparities provide opportunities for improvement.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases are declining statewide, with 33 of 35 health districts are in a declining trajectory. Nonetheless, rates remain very high. Current case rates mimic those we saw in December 2020.
  • The majority of model projection scenarios predict we are past the peak. Only the “Adaptive, Fatigue Control with Variant” scenario predicts another peak later this year.
  • Mean weekly incidence in Virginia has declined to 39 per 100k, a decrease from last week but above the national average of 29 per 100k.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Virginia’s average daily cases remains very high. Nevertheless cases continue to decline statewide. 29 of 35 Virginia Health Districts are in declining trajectories, and only one (Loudoun) is in a surge trajectory.
  • Variants of Concern (VoCs) continue to be identified nationally and in Virginia. Four cases of the B.1.1.7 VoC have been identified in Virginia, including 3 in Northern Virginia and 1 in Northwest Virginia.
  • Prevention and mitigation strategies may successfully contain VoCs. However, if coupled with reduced prevention effort, VoCs could lead to high transmission and extend the worst impacts of the pandemic.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Data and model results have stabilized following the holidays. Test positivity remains high, however, making comparisons to earlier data difficult.
  • Virginia’s mean weekly incidence declined sharply from 72/100k to 54/100k, but exceeds the national level of 45/100k. The sharp decline has affected projections. Nevertheless, 13 Health Districts are experiencing case growth, including 6 experiencing surges.
  • New variants appear to increase transmission. Low case and transmission rates may limit the impact of new variants.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Data and model results have stabilized following the holidays. Test positivity remains high, however, making comparisons to earlier data difficult.
  • A new scenario includes possible new variants.
    • Assumes 40% transmissibility increase
    • Gradual replacement with the new variant in the SEIR model over two months.
    • This scenario will be updated as new information becomes available.
  • With New Variants, new weekly cases remain at 65K + for 10 weeks, from the week ending February 21 to April 25

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.