UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • While case levels remain very high, they are declining in most areas of the state. 31 health districts are in declining trajectories, and only one is in a slow growth trajectory. None are in surge trajectories.
  • High case levels, combined with a substantial unvaccinated population, could lead to a significant holiday surge.
  • Combined with a possible holiday COVID-19 surge, a severe flu could result in hospitalizations that exceed last January’s peak.
  • Vaccines are the best prevention for flu and COVID-19. Booster shot administrations currently exceed first and second dose COVID-19 vaccine administrations.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates across Virginia continue to fall, and most health districts are in “Decline”, with zero districts in “Surge” this week.
  • Overall case rates remain high, and the risk of infection is still significant. We may have made it over the crest of the Delta wave, but we still have a long way to go.
  • Hospitalizations and deaths typically lag reported cases, and we may still see small increases in both in the next few weeks.
  • Models predict a continued slow decline, but the possibility for another surge caused by winter weather and travel remains.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide, the number of confirmed cases had begun to decline, and 25 local health districts are in declining or plateau trajectories. Transmission rates have also dropped statewide and in all regions.
  • Ten local health districts remain in growth trajectories, including 2 in surge trajectories.
  • Under the current course, the model projects cases have already peaked, however scenarios show there is still potential for a large holiday surge similar to the one experienced last year.

 

Interested in learn more about how VDH is working with partners to improve foresight into the COVID-19 pandemic? 

Join us on October 5 at 3PM for an open panel discussion and Q&A with Virginia Department of Health officials and University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute researchers, presented by Metaculus.

 

 

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Overall case rate growth has slowed, but trends are mixed across the Commonwealth, with much of the Southwest still in “Surge”.
  • Virginia may be “cresting the peak” of this Delta wave, but case-rates and community transmission remain quite high.
  • Though models forecast an imminent peak, followed by a slow decline in cases, masking and social distancing are still the best option for limiting short-term impacts on your community.
  • Models also suggest that if transmission patterns mirror those of Fall and Winter 2020, we may see a larger peak in January.
  • Vaccines remain the most effective way to reduce cases in the long-term, as well as protect against hospitalization and death.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • COVID19 case rate growth has slowed, but case rates remain high.
  • Parts of Virginia show case rates plateauing (4 districts) or even in a slow decline (12 districts), but other parts are still surging (another 12 districts).
  • Models continue to forecast a peak in statewide case rates at the start of October. Masking and social distancing remain the best option for limiting the short-term impact of this surge.
  • A repeat of surges seen over the 2020 holiday season could cause a significant burden for the hospital system. Increasing vaccine uptake could prevent thousands of cases and reduce this burden. The Delta variant has completely supplanted all other strains and now makes up over 99% of Virginia cases.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.