COVID-19 Blog

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • As of February 2, the CDC listed 16 Virginian localities, with a total 260k residents, as having “High” COVID19 community levels. A further 62 locales, with 3 million residents, were at “Medium” community levels.
  • Cases and hospital admissions continue to decline from early January peaks. 24 of 35 health districts are in declining trajectories and 6 are in slow growth. However, 29 were in declining trajectories last week, with just one in slow growth.
  • Short-term models forecast stable hospital admission levels over the next few weeks.
  • XBB.1.5 has quickly become dominant in HHS Region 3, now representing 73% of sequenced cases. This has not been accompanied with case increases, however.
  • Vaccine administrations continue to decline, with the 7-day average of daily administrations below 5,000 since mid-January.
  • So far, COVID-19 has been much milder than in previous winters. Nevertheless, COVID-19 hospital admissions have far exceeded those from flu, with much higher peaks and high sustained admission rates.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Weekly case rates have declined in the last two weeks. As of January 24, the 7-day average of daily cases is 17.65 per 100k. This is down 33% in two weeks. Statewide case rates are now similar to those of early December.
  • Twelve counties and cities are reporting high COVID19 community levels. This represents about 230,000 Virginians (2.7% of the population). The CDC suggests that residents of these areas wear masks when in indoor public places. Another 63 areas (covering 2.74 million Virginians) are reporting medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should also wear a mask in public.
  • Hospitalization trends continue to decline gradually. The 7-day moving average of new admissions is 769. This is down 22% in a fortnight. ICU occupancy and ventilator supported patient numbers are also down slightly.
  • CDC models suggest that the XBB.1.5 subvariant is continuing to outpace its peers. It is now responsible for an estimated 73% of new cases in Virginia.
  • XBB.1.5 does not cause more severe illness than other variants. But it is better able to cause reinfections among those with natural immunity. A new CDC study shows that the bivalent COVID19 booster is about as effective against XBB.1.5 as it was against the BA.5 variant. Please consider getting yours if you haven’t already.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2023-01-16. The next modeling update will be 2023-01-30 for release the following Friday.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Weekly case rates have declined for two weeks in a row. The seven-day moving average of new cases was 17.55 / 100k on Jan-17. This is down 37% in a fortnight.
  • Only sixteen counties and cities are reporting high COVID19 community levels. This is down from 65 locales last week. The CDC recommends residents of these areas wear masks when in indoor public places. Another 64 areas report medium community levels. High-risk individuals should consider masking in these areas.
  • Hospital occupancy remains elevated but is declining slowly. The 7-day moving average is now 845. This is down 15% in two weeks. ICU and ventilator patient numbers are also down slightly. Influenza hospitalization rates have also declined significantly, though flu seasons sometimes have a second wave.
  • The CDC estimates that the novel XBB.1.5 subvariant is now dominant in Virginia. It represents approximately 60% of all new cases. We expect this growth trend to continue, as XBB.1.5 displaces its peers.
  • Models forecast a decline in flu with slight rise in COVID19. Overall, it is expected that patient load at Virginia’s hospitals will be stable for the rest of the month.
  • Please consider getting a bivalent COVID19 booster and flu shot if you haven’t already. Also please continue to practice good prevention.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

NOTE: This is an abbreviated report. UVA Biocomplexity Institute slides will resume on January 20. Additionally, COVID-19 scenario projection updates are paused. Foresight work will focus on genomic surveillance, short-term forecasts, and respiratory disease risks. Scenario projections will be incorporated into slides and the modeling report when warranted (e.g., a new variant of concern emerges). Modeling dashboards will remain up, but will not be updated until new projections are created, and links have been removed from this post.

Key Takeaways

  • Weekly case rates remain high but may have plateaued. The 7-day average is 26.6 per 100k. This is a 50% increase since last month, but lower than last week’s rate.
  • Sixty-five counties and cities are reporting high COVID19 community levels. This represents 3.03 million Virginians. The CDC recommends residents of these areas wear masks when in indoor public places. Another 48 areas are reporting medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should also mask in public.
  • Hospital occupancy remains high, but growth may be slowing. The 7-day moving average is now at 1,069. As with cases, this is up from last month, but down from last week. ICU and ventilation patient numbers remain largely unchanged.
  • The CDC now estimates that the XBB and XBB.1.5 subvariants are dominant in Virginia and growing. They represent 54% of new cases in the Commonwealth.
  • Models forecast a continued decline in flu hospitalizations. This is coupled with a slight increase in COVID19 hospitalizations. Overall, it is expected that hospitals in Virginia will face a stable patient load for the rest of the month.
  • XBB is not thought to be more virulent than earlier strains. But it can sicken those with prior immunity. Please consider getting a bivalent COVID19 booster if you haven’t already. Also please continue to practice good prevention.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

NOTE: Due to the holiday schedule, the update is abbreviated this week. UVA Biocomplexity Institute slides will resume on January 20. Additionally, COVID-19 scenario projection updates are paused. Foresight work will focus on genomic surveillance, short-term forecasts, and respiratory disease risks. Scenario projections will be incorporated into slides and the modeling report when warranted (e.g., a new variant of concern emerges). Modeling dashboards will remain up, but will not be updated until new projections are created, and links have been removed from this post.

Key Takeaways

  • The Commonwealth continues to see sustained growth in weekly case rates. The seven-day average is now 28.3 per 100k. This is up 68% in the last month.
  • Fifty-seven counties and cities are reporting high COVID-19 community levels. Up from 19 two weeks ago. The CDC recommends residents of these areas wear masks when in indoor public places. Another 46 locales are at medium community levels. The CDC recommends masking for high-risk individuals in these areas.
  • Hospital occupancy is continuing to grow. There are now 1067 Virginians currently hospitalized for COVID-19. This is the highest value seen since February 24, 2022. Of these, 141 are in the Intensive Care Unit, and 38 are on mechanical ventilators. All three metrics are up more than 65% since this time last month.
  • BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are still the dominant variants, but they are losing ground. XBB and XBB.1.5 cases are surging, and together account for almost 40% of new cases. We expect them to become the dominant subvariants in the coming weeks.
  • The new XBB subvariants can infect those with prior immunity. They are also extremely infectious. Bolstered by winter weather and holiday travel, XBB is expected to cause another surge. Please consider getting your bivalent COVID-19 boosters if you haven’t already. Also please continue to practice good prevention.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.