COVID-19 Blog

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide case-rates continue to increase. Most of Virginia is still experiencing “Low” or “Medium” community levels.
  • Transmission rates (Rₑ) are above one for Virginia and in all six regions. 31 of 35 health districts are in growth trajectories, including 24 in surge trajectories.
  • The CDC estimates that the BA.2.12.1 Omicron subvariant is now dominant in the mid-Atlantic region. It accounts for about 56% of sequenced cases in Virginia. The BA.2 subvariant accounts for a further 43% of new cases.
  • Models project continued case growth across the state, with cases peaking in the summer. However the impact in terms of hospitalizations and deaths is likely to be lower compared to past surges.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-05-11. The next modeling update will be 2022-05-25 for release the following Friday. 

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Most health districts (22 of 35) are now in surge, with another 11 in slow growth. Other states are having surges of their own. Most of the Northeastern states are seeing rapid case increases.
  • The basic reproduction number (Rₑ) is above one for all regions of the Commonwealth. This implies that case rates will continue to grow.
  • The CDC estimates that the BA.2.12.1 subvariant represents almost 50% of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia. It will likely become dominant in the next few weeks. The subvariant is more transmissible than the ancestral BA.2.
  • Models forecast a significant surge of cases in the coming weeks. Case rates are not expected to reach levels seen during the January wave. But they will likely exceed those seen in pre-Omicron waves.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM. 

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • 28 of Virginia’s 35 Health Districts are now in growth trajectories, including 11 in surge. Case growth is widespread in Virginia.
  • Nationally, 10 states and the District of Columbia are in growth trajectories, mostly in the Northeast.
  • Omicron variants BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 now account for almost all sequenced cases in Virginia and nationally. The CDC estimates that BA.2.12.1 is now responsible for about 40% of new cases in Virginia.
  • BA.2 is more transmissible than the original Omicron variant (BA.1), and BA.2.12.1 is even more transmissible than BA.2. Due to this growth advantage, we expect BA.2.12.1 to become the dominant variant in the coming weeks.
  • Vaccination is effective at preventing severe disease and death caused by these Omicron variants. It reduces, but does not eliminate, the risk of infection and transmission.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-04-27. The next modeling update will be 2022-05-11 for release the following Friday. 

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases have increased from recent lows, nationally and in several regions of Virginia.
  • Omicron’s BA.2 subvariant is dominant in Virginia and nationally, while the BA.2.12.1 subvariant is beginning to make inroads, particularly in New York and the Northeast.
  • Behavior changes and Omicron’s subvariants may drive a summer surge. The model suggests case and hospitalization peaks somewhere between levels seen during the Delta and Omicron waves.
  • Projected deaths are much lower than previous waves, as Virginia’s immunity profile continues to improve due to vaccinations, boosters and previous infections, and as treatments become available.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.

UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide case-rates are up from last week. However, most of Virginia is still experiencing “Low” COVID19 community levels.
  • Surveillance artifacts continue to affect both models and metrics. These are largely limited to county-level data. They should not affect health district or statewide projections.
  • The basic reproduction number (Rₑ) remains near one in most regions. This suggests that statewide case rates have plateaued.
  • Some districts are still in decline, but 18 are now in slow growth. Two districts are also in surge, the first detected since February 11th. Nationally, New Jersey is also in surge, while Washington DC and five northern states are in slow growth. Maryland has plateaued.
  • Wastewater surveillance continues to detect signs of case growth.
  • The new BA.2.12.1 sub-lineage is out-competing BA.2, indicating a transmission advantage over BA.2. Together, the two now account for almost 95% of new cases in Virginia.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.