UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases are declining statewide, with 33 of 35 health districts are in a declining trajectory. Nonetheless, rates remain very high. Current case rates mimic those we saw in December 2020.
  • The majority of model projection scenarios predict we are past the peak. Only the “Adaptive, Fatigue Control with Variant” scenario predicts another peak later this year.
  • Mean weekly incidence in Virginia has declined to 39 per 100k, a decrease from last week but above the national average of 29 per 100k.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.