UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates continue to decline statewide but remain high
  • 88% of Virginia counties have case rates above the mean rate of Summer 2020
  • All health districts are in a declining or plateau trajectory, with 33 of the 35 districts in decline
  • Model results project a continued decline along the current course, but the Fatigued Control with Variant scenario projects a substantial peak in July 2021 with cases 2.5 times higher than the January peak

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.