UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Overall, cases continue to plateau in Virginia. With the exception of Mount Rogers, Virginia’s local health districts are equally divided into declining, plateauing, and slow growth trajectories.
  • Mount Rogers Health District is experiencing a surge in cases. Hotspots are centered around Ivanhoe, including Max Meadows, Wytheville, Sugar Grove, and Austinville.
  • The B.1.1.7 variant is the most dominant Variant of Concern in Virginia. This VoC spreads more rapidly, and increases hospitalizations and deaths by 60%, including among younger age cohorts.
  • While variants are a concern, vaccine hesitancy is the largest long-term risk to containing the impact of the pandemic.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.