UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Average daily cases per 100k Virginia residents declined to the single digits for the first time since last summer. Cases are declining or plateauing in all of Virginia’s Local Health Districts – a first since UVA began reporting trajectories.
  • New vaccinations have declined dramatically, while mitigation measures are being relaxed, heralding an new environment compared to April.
  • Scenarios have changed to include the dominance of the B1.1.7 variant, behavioral changes in response to surges, and different vaccination rates.
  • Masks and social distancing are still recommended for people who are unvaccinated, and masks are still recommended in certain situations for those who are vaccinated.

Full Weekly Report.

(Note: The Weekly Report was edited to reflect that recent data on vaccine administrations is preliminary.)

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.