UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • The Delta variant is dominant in Virginia, driving an increase in cases. All areas of Virginia are seeing case growth, with 25 of 35 Health Districts experiencing surges.
  • Model projections indicate that, along current trajectories, cases could exceed last January’s peak.
  • Evidence is building that the Delta variant causes more severe disease. In worst case scenarios, hospitalizations and deaths could exceed last January’s peak as well.
  • Vaccines are our best defense against the Delta variant, drastically reducing the risk of infection and severe disease.

*Note: The Weekly Modeling Report was updated to clarify average daily case and weekly case rates reported by the CDC.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.