UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • The cadence of COVID-19 modeling projections has been reduced to bi-weekly. This is an abbreviated interim report.
  • Statewide community transmission rates remains “High” with over 100 weekly cases per 100,000 residents.
  • Case rates continue to decline, but this trend appears to be slowing. Four health districts are now experiencing slow growth, six others have recently plateaued, and the statewide Re is slowly climbing.
  • Models continue to forecast a decline in cases. But they also suggest the possibility of another surge if winter weather and travel increase transmission rates to match those of Winter 2020.
  • Stay safe during the holidays by following CDC guidance.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.