UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases continue to decline or plateau across the Commonwealth. Nevertheless, case rates remain high in some regions, particularly Southwest Virginia.
  • So far, Virginia has not seen a repeat of increased transmission rates seen last fall. This reduces the expected impact of a potential holiday surge. Nevertheless, the model shows a large surge is possible under current vaccination rates.
  • First dose vaccinations have ticked up recently, and booster shot uptake has been robust.
  • Metaculus forecasters place a 30% chance on the possibility of cases exceeding the Delta surge during the 1st quarter of 2022.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.