- Cases continue to decline or plateau across the Commonwealth. Nevertheless, case rates remain high in some regions, particularly Southwest Virginia.
- So far, Virginia has not seen a repeat of increased transmission rates seen last fall. This reduces the expected impact of a potential holiday surge. Nevertheless, the model shows a large surge is possible under current vaccination rates.
- First dose vaccinations have ticked up recently, and booster shot uptake has been robust.
- Metaculus forecasters place a 30% chance on the possibility of cases exceeding the Delta surge during the 1st quarter of 2022.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.