UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Sixteen health districts are experiencing surges, with 3 new districts in the Southwest (Lenowisco, Pittsylvania-Danville, and West Piedmont) and one new district in the Central Region (Southside). Surges have abated in Henrico and Prince William.
  • Model methodology has been updated this week. The new model closely traces past and current trends to predict future cases. The new model replaces the 8 scenarios shown in previous weeks.
  • Projections now extend into the fall. However, considerable uncertainty remains as the impact of key seasonal effects is still unknown.
  • The transmission rate remains below 1.0 and the surge appears to be declining, but case incidence remains high.

Click here to see the weekly report.

Click here to explore the model results for your community in the model dashboard.

Click here to see the slides provided by the team at the UVA Biocomplexity Institute.