- Sixteen health districts are experiencing surges, with 3 new districts in the Southwest (Lenowisco, Pittsylvania-Danville, and West Piedmont) and one new district in the Central Region (Southside). Surges have abated in Henrico and Prince William.
- Model methodology has been updated this week. The new model closely traces past and current trends to predict future cases. The new model replaces the 8 scenarios shown in previous weeks.
- Projections now extend into the fall. However, considerable uncertainty remains as the impact of key seasonal effects is still unknown.
- The transmission rate remains below 1.0 and the surge appears to be declining, but case incidence remains high.