UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Surges in most health districts are abating. Only one health district (Mount Rogers) remains in the upward swing of a surge scenario.
  • Incidence is declining statewide as we closely approach a state of uncertainty in the Fall.
  • With trends continuing in their current trajectory, we would expect to see over 187,000 total cases in Virginia by Thanksgiving.
  • Statewide positivity rate hovers around 5-7% while the average time from onset to diagnosis has returned to the duration observed in the May and June (5.8 days).
  • The transmission rate again remains below 1.0 statewide and has shown more stability than in past weeks. The transmission rate exceeds 1.0 only in Northern Virginia.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.