UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Last Updated: August 24, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • Models are designed to project what could happen based on current trends but do not forecast what will happen. Behavioral responses drive changes in current trends.
  • The statewide reproduction rate jumped back above 1.0, and all regions are above 1.0. Last week’s statewide rate was revised upward, and has been above 1.0 since late September.
  • Weekly incidence in Virginia (15/100K) is rising. Nationally, incidence continues to increase (27/100K), particularly in the Midwest states.
  • National and state trends are concerning as we enter the holiday season, heralding colder weather and increased travel.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.