UVA COVID-19 Modeling Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases are surging nationally. 37 states are in surge trajectories, including most mid-Atlantic states.
  • Cases are surging in Virginia. 30 of Virginia’s 35 health districts are in growth trajectories, including 21 in surge trajectories. Many populous urban and suburban areas are experiencing surges.
  • Statewide, the reproduction rate has been above 1.0 since late September. It remains above 1.0 in most regions as well.
  • Thanksgiving holidays likely caused a short-term lag in testing and case reporting, which may be masking some infections.
  • Due to surges and data lag, UVA and RAND suggest 3-day rather than 7-day averages may be better indicators of near-term trend, along with measures using report or confirmation date over date of onset.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.