UVA COVID-19 Modeling Update

Key Takeaways

  • The post-Thanksgiving surge led to a substantial increase in projections
    • The projected peak is 98,000 new confirmed cases during the week ending Feb. 7
    • This is 13 times higher than the summer peak of 7,550
  • Preliminary vaccine impacts have been incorporated into the model
    • The impacts are limited during the projection period and dwarfed by the impact of other mitigation strategies
  • The surge in cases is affecting all regions in Virginia, all neighboring states, and the District of Columbia
  • Weekly case rates in the Midwest are beginning to decline from the extremes seen just a few weeks ago

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.