- The post-Thanksgiving surge led to a substantial increase in projections
- The projected peak is 98,000 new confirmed cases during the week ending Feb. 7
- This is 13 times higher than the summer peak of 7,550
- Preliminary vaccine impacts have been incorporated into the model
- The impacts are limited during the projection period and dwarfed by the impact of other mitigation strategies
- The surge in cases is affecting all regions in Virginia, all neighboring states, and the District of Columbia
- Weekly case rates in the Midwest are beginning to decline from the extremes seen just a few weeks ago
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.