UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Projections include preliminary estimates of the affect of vaccine deployment. The impact is limited early in 2021.
  • New scenarios paint very different pictures of the course of the pandemic.
    • A slow vaccine rollout, accompanied by pandemic fatigue, could see new cases increasing into April.
    • Current projections show high weekly peaks in mid-February.
  • Test positivity is above 15%, indicating that some cases are likely being missed.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.