UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Last Updated: January 29, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • Data and model results have stabilized following the holidays. Test positivity remains high, however, making comparisons to earlier data difficult.
  • A new scenario includes possible new variants.
    • Assumes 40% transmissibility increase
    • Gradual replacement with the new variant in the SEIR model over two months.
    • This scenario will be updated as new information becomes available.
  • With New Variants, new weekly cases remain at 65K + for 10 weeks, from the week ending February 21 to April 25

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.