UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Data and model results have stabilized following the holidays. Test positivity remains high, however, making comparisons to earlier data difficult.
  • Virginia’s mean weekly incidence declined sharply from 72/100k to 54/100k, but exceeds the national level of 45/100k. The sharp decline has affected projections. Nevertheless, 13 Health Districts are experiencing case growth, including 6 experiencing surges.
  • New variants appear to increase transmission. Low case and transmission rates may limit the impact of new variants.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.