UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • COVID19 case rate growth has slowed, but case rates remain high.
  • Parts of Virginia show case rates plateauing (4 districts) or even in a slow decline (12 districts), but other parts are still surging (another 12 districts).
  • Models continue to forecast a peak in statewide case rates at the start of October. Masking and social distancing remain the best option for limiting the short-term impact of this surge.
  • A repeat of surges seen over the 2020 holiday season could cause a significant burden for the hospital system. Increasing vaccine uptake could prevent thousands of cases and reduce this burden. The Delta variant has completely supplanted all other strains and now makes up over 99% of Virginia cases.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.