UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide, the number of confirmed cases had begun to decline, and 25 local health districts are in declining or plateau trajectories. Transmission rates have also dropped statewide and in all regions.
  • Ten local health districts remain in growth trajectories, including 2 in surge trajectories.
  • Under the current course, the model projects cases have already peaked, however scenarios show there is still potential for a large holiday surge similar to the one experienced last year.


Interested in learn more about how VDH is working with partners to improve foresight into the COVID-19 pandemic? 

Join us on October 5 at 3PM for an open panel discussion and Q&A with Virginia Department of Health officials and University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute researchers, presented by Metaculus.



Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.