UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates across Virginia continue to fall, and most health districts are in “Decline”, with zero districts in “Surge” this week.
  • Overall case rates remain high, and the risk of infection is still significant. We may have made it over the crest of the Delta wave, but we still have a long way to go.
  • Hospitalizations and deaths typically lag reported cases, and we may still see small increases in both in the next few weeks.
  • Models predict a continued slow decline, but the possibility for another surge caused by winter weather and travel remains.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.