UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates remain high, but are continuing to decline steadily in nearly all districts.
  • Model projections expect continued decline across the board.
  • Vaccine “boosters” may reduce cases even further.
  • Future case growth remains possible if transmission rates mirror those of Winter 2020. At the moment the Commonwealth is not following this trajectory.
  • The impact of the flu season remains an unknown. It is possible that a severe flu season, in conjunction with the ongoing COVID pandemic, may push hospitals to near capacity in January of 2022.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.