- Cases and testing are slightly down after the holiday break, similar to the downtick seen last year following holidays. We expect a rebound later this week.
- Across the Commonwealth, activity remains mixed, with 18 of the 35 health districts in slow growth, and another 10 in decline.
- Current model projections suggest a flattening case trajectory in the near-term, with gradual growth starting in the new year.
- Seasonal factors and holiday travel may shift trajectories towards more rapid growth as seen in the “FallWinter” modeling scenario.
- The models have been updated to more accurately account for differing immunity profiles. This will be key to modeling the new Omicron variant, which has not yet been detected in Virginia.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.