UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases rates are up considerably from last week, and the effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is now greater than one for all health regions and the Commonwealth itself.
  • Though a few districts are still in decline, most are now in surge (12) or experiencing slow growth (15). This marks the first time any district has been in surge since the first week of October.
  • This sudden increase in cases, Rₑ, and epidemic trajectory may be the result of testing and reporting delays from the Thanksgiving holiday. This may also explain why the previous week appeared to show fewer cases and a smaller Rₑ than expected.
  • Models continue to forecast a gradual growth in case rates through the new year, though the possibility of a winter surge remains.

Note: Models are now run biweekly. We are currently between modeling weeks, and this is an interim report. Models will be run next on 2021-12-15, and released on the following Friday with a full report.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.