- Case rates continue to grow across the Commonwealth and remain at a high level. Currently, 21 of 35 health districts are in surge trajectories, while nine are in slow growth.
- The statewide reproduction rate (Rₜ) is still above one.
- The Omicron scenario projects a sudden surge, reaching 15,000 daily cases in late January. This is more than twice the maximum rate seen during the Winter 2021 surge.
- Holiday travel and activities may contribute to an even larger surge.
- The CDC estimates that Omicron now accounts for over 75% of new cases in the mid-Atlantic region.
Note: There will be no modeling update in the week between Christmas and New Years. The models will next be updated on 2022-01-05 and published on the following Friday, 2022-01-07.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.