UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates are quickly falling across the Commonwealth. All but one district is in decline. All neighboring states are also in decline.
  • For the second week in a row, the effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is below 0.85 for all regions, and below 0.7 statewide.
  • Case rates remain very high for some rural parts of the state, in particular counties in Southside and the Far Southwest. Residents in these regions should continue to wear a mask when in indoor public places.
  • The BA.2 subvariant now accounts for 6.2% of new cases in Virginia. We estimate that it will become dominant by mid-March.
  • Models suggest that case rates will continue to decline across the Commonwealth. The arrival of the BA.2 subvariant may slow this decline, but the decline is expected to continue.
  • Vaccination remains effective against the BA.2 subvariant, particularly by markedly reducing hospitalization and death.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.