UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases continue to decline statewide. All of Virginia’s local health districts are in declining trajectories.
  • At the current rate, the BA.2 variant of Omicron is unlikely to stem declines, even if it becomes dominant in Virginia.
  • According to new CDC guidance, community levels are high in much of the state. Community levels include measures of transmission and burden on local health systems.
  • Vaccination and (to a lesser extent) exposure mitigate but do not eliminate the risk of severe disease and the impact on health systems from new variants.
  • Vaccination is the best tool to control individual and community risks from COVID-19.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.