UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

NOTE: VDH is currently completing a report on the COVID-19 modeling and projection project. We would appreciate it if you would complete this quick survey to provide feedback and insight on how this information is used.

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates and hospitalizations are continuing their steep decline across the Commonwealth. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) remains below 0.75.
  • For the second week in a row, all 35 health districts are in decline. Nationally, all 50 states and the District of Columbia are also in decline.
  • Community transmission levels remain high in the Alleghany and Lynchburg areas, as well as in the Far Southwest. Residents should continue to mask in indoor public places.
  • The CDC estimates that about 10% of new cases in Virginia are caused by the BA.2 subvariant. The growth rate of BA.2 has slowed considerably, but it is still expected to become dominant.
  • Models project a continued decline in statewide case rates. The BA.2 subvariant may slow this decline, but another surge is not expected.
  • Note that this is an interim report. Models will next be run on 2022-03-16 for release the following Friday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.