UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

NOTE: VDH is currently completing a report on the COVID-19 modeling and projection project. We would appreciate it if you would complete this quick survey to provide feedback and insight on how this information is used.

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates continue to fall across the Commonwealth, reaching levels not seen since August of 2021.
  • Thirty four of thirty five health districts in Virginia are currently in decline, as are all fifty states and Washington DC.
  • The effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is below one in most regions, indicating continued decline. It is near one in the Eastern region, suggesting case rates may plateau at current low levels.
  • The BA.2 subvariant now accounts for 20% of cases in Virginia. BA.2 growth has slowed in the last few weeks, but we expect it to become dominant in April.
  • BA.2 is causing significant surges in Western Europe and China. Virginia may be protected by the recency of the Omicron surge and warming weather, but we are monitoring the situation closely.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.