Foresight & Analytics — Resources

• CDC CFA Website
• Insight Net

Dashboards & Data

Data:

• COVID-19 UVA Biocomplexity Institute Model Projections

Current:

• Biocomplexity Forecast Dashboard
• COVID-19 Medical Resource Demand Dashboard - Virginia
• COVID-19 VaxStat Dashboard - Virginia

Archive:

• COVID-19 Mobility Dashboard (Not updated)
• COVID-19 Mobility Impact Dashboard (Not updated)

Publications:

Published Articles:

• Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. May 2021.
• Data-Driven Real-Time Strategic Placement of Mobile Vaccine Distribution Sites. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. June 2022.
• Data-Driven Scalable Pipeline using National Agent-Based Models for Real-time Pandemic Response and Decision Support. The International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications. April 2022.
• Evaluating the utility of high-resolution proximity metrics in predicting the spread of COVID-19. ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems. December 2022.
• Finding Nontrivial Minimum Fixed Points in Discrete Dynamical Systems: Complexity, Special Case Algorithms and Heuristics. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. June 2022.
• Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination. eLife. June 2022.
• Techniques for blocking the propagation of two simultaneous contagions over networks using a graph dynamical systems framework. Network Science. August 2022.
• Understanding the co-evolution of mask-wearing and epidemics: a network perspective. Environmental Sciences. June 2022
• Best Practices in Coordinating Large-Scale Data Science Initiatives. Joint Statistical Meetings 2022. August 2022.
• COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions: data annotation for rapidly changing local policy information. Nature Scientific Data. March 2023.
• Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States. Lancet Regional Health Americas. January 2023.
• Coupled models of genomic surveillance and evolving pandemics with applications for timely public health interventions, November 2023.

Book Chapters:

• AI Techniques for Forecasting Epidemic Dynamics: Theory and Practice. Artificial Intelligence in Covid-19. November 2022.
• The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Epidemiological Modeling. Artificial Intelligence for Science. April 2023.

Conference Proceedings

• All models are useful: Bayesian ensembling for robust high resolution covid-19 forecasting. Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining. August 2021.
• AI-Driven Agent-Based Models to Study the Role of Vaccine Acceptance in Controlling COVID-19 Spread in the US. 2021 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data). December 2021.
• High performance agent-based modeling to study realistic contact tracing protocols. 2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC). December 2021.
• Informing University Covid-19 Decisions Using Simple Compartmental Models. 2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC). December 2021.
• CausalGNN: Causal-based Graph Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Forecasting. Proceedings of the Thirty-Sixth Annual Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-22). June 2022.
• Efficiently Learning the Topology and Behavior of a Networked Dynamical System Via Active Queries. International Conference on Machine Learning. June 2022.
• Enhancing COVID-19 Ensemble Forecasting Model Performance Using Auxiliary Data Sources. Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data). December 2022.

Preprints

• A computational framework for weighted simplicial homology. arXiv preprint. June 2022.
• Rapid threat detection in SARS-CoV-2. medRxiv. August 2022.
• Utility of human judgment ensembles during times of pandemic uncertainty: A case study during the COVID-19 Omicron BA.1 wave in the USA. medRxiv. October 2022.

Forecasting Tournaments

• Keep Virginia Safe II Forecasting Tournament
• Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament
  • KVS Project Summary
• Real-time Pandemic Decision Making
• Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Articles:

• Forecasting for Situational Awareness in an Emerging Public Health Crisis