- The period of transition, from community mitigation to identify and contain, is a period of uncertainty
- Better detection and isolation has been effective thus far, and statewide data is tracking related scenarios
- However, there is wide variation by district, with some tracking scenarios showing higher growth rates.
- Outbreaks may have a large, but short term, impact on growth rates
- Statewide, the transmission rate has been below 1.0 since May 26.
Note: We have retired the “Unmitigated” scenario. The Unmitigated scenario was the counterfactual scenario that demonstrated the likely outcome if Virginia had not declared a public health emergency, and Virginians had not practiced social distancing and infection control. The “Full Rebound” scenario has taken it’s place. It is essentially the Unmitigated scenario, but after May 15. It shows what would have occurred if Virginia had reopened completely and suddenly on May 15, and all Virginia residents and businesses abandoned all social distancing and infection control. We use the Full Rebound to estimate cases avoided since May 15. Cases are avoided mainly through continued social distancing and infection control practices, but also through better detection with improved testing and contact tracing.
Click here to see the full report.
Click here to explore the model results for your community.
Click here to see the slides provided by the team at the UVA Biocomplexity Institute.