UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Models are designed to project what could happen based on current trends but do not forecast what will happen. Behavioral responses drive changes in current trends.
  • The reproduction rate is below 1.0 in Virginia for the third consecutive week, and incidence declined to 9.2/100K. Nationally, weekly incidence increased to 15/100K, fueled by growth in the Midwest.
  • 28 of 35 health districts are seeing declining or flat new case growth, 6 are seeing slow growth, and 1 is in surge.
  • If current trends persist the model projects case growth will not exceed August peaks. However, risks abound, including fall & flu season.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.