UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates are continuing to decline across the Commonwealth, and all regions report a reproductive number (Rₑ) of less than one.
  • Most health districts are in decline, though four districts in the Southwest and Southside are still in surge.
  • Models forecast a continued reduction in case rates and suggest that daily hospitalizations may have peaked as well.
  • Despite the falling case rates, all counties are still reporting “High” community transmission levels. Precautions are still warranted.
  • Models suggest that the new BA.2 subvariant of Omicron may become dominant in Virginia in the coming few weeks. This could greatly slow the statewide decline in case rates.
  • Studies suggest that BA.2 is not more severe than Omicron, but both are still capable of causing significant illness.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.